The notion of Dish Network and T-Mobile forming some sort of pack and inking out a deal to bring the two companies together is nothing new. The rumors surrounding such a deal have been ongoing for quite a long time now and heated up much more in the past few months with the odd gestures and compliments each of the CEOs, were paying to each other publicly. Not to mention, that when Dish went about securing all of the spectrum that they acquired in the recent auction, the rumors started to be fuelled even more. Of course, last week saw the rumors reaching boiling point when the news broke that the two companies were apparently in advanced talks with each other on a possible merger.
Well, now that the immediate excitement of the talks news has died down, analysts are strarting to pitch in with their view on the topic. In particular, senior research analyst and principal at MoffettNathanson LLC, Craig Moffett, has been providing his view on a supposed deal and in short, finds that in spite of all the recent talk a deal between the two is probably unlikely and certainly much less substantial than the news may seem on first impressions. In particular, Moffett focuses on the possible mutual beneficial relationship between the two independent industries, a wireless provider and a satellite TV provider.
In terms of the bandwidth that T-Mobile will benefit from the deal, Moffett points out that in truth T-Mobile are only likely to acquire further access to mid-band spectrum, of which T-Mobile already has ‘enough’ of. Instead, where T-Mobile desperately needs to attain spectrum (low-band), this deal would not see them benefiting in any way and as such, would continue to be facing the same issues as before. Moving on to the supposed combined wireless/satellite bundling that may occur from such a deal, Moffett again points out that the market in general, is not looking for any sort of new bundling package and as such, there would be little benefit in this being one of the main reasons for either company to push the deal through. Further adding, that bundling services like this, would not call for any sort of merger between the two and certainly not to this magnitude. Craig Moffett also adds that this is unlikely to see any inclusion of the Sling TV OTT service, due to the exclusivity would effectively “starve” the service from reaching its supposed wider user goal and limiting its future potential.
Of course in concluding, Moffett, does make it clear that none of these reasonings would stop the deal going through and it still may very well do. However, Moffett does at least see these reasons as likely candidates as to why the merger is unlikely to happen and at the very least, will not be quite as straightforward as it currently seems to be. If anything, Moffett points out that the two companies coming together would require a much more thought out agreement before any deal was likely to happen.