Android will be Dominant OS By Year-end, says Gartner

April 8, 2011 - Written By Fred Scholl


Gartner Predicts Android Will be Most Popular Mobile OS By End of 2011

Android enthusiasts, who have watched the open-source OS develop from a pipe dream into a major market force, will soon have more reason to rejoice, according to a study by Gartner. By the end of 2011, the study says, Android will have become the most popular mobile OS, expected to be running on 49.2% of all smartphones.

Android Predicted to Dominate Worldwide Emerging Markets

Gartner analyst Roberta Cozza predicts that the smartphone market will become “truly democratized”, due primarily to competition between manufacturers of Android-based devices. This competition will likely result in lower price stickers, with two-thirds of smartphones expected to be priced at $300 or less by 2015. The study further predicts that Android will find its highest volume niche in the low to medium price range, and particularly in emerging markets.

The same report forecasts that Apple’s iOS will hold second place from 2011 to 2014, after peaking in popularity this year. Research in Motion (RIM) is expected to lose market share over the same time period, even figuring in RIM’s expected changeover (in 2012) from BlackBerry OS to QNX, a more advanced OS, whose features  should allow for more competitive devices.

Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 is expected to move up in standing to #3,  due to manufacturer Nokia’s decision to abandon its own Symbian OS in favor of  Windows.

Here are the rest of the numerical predictions from Gartner.  Are they on the money? Let us know your thoughts.

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

 


OS 2010 2011 2012 2015
Symbian 111,577 89,930 32,666 661
Market Share (%) 37.6 19.2 5.2 0.1
Android 67,225 179,873 310,088 539,318
Market Share (%) 22.7 38.5 49.2 48.8
Research In Motion 47,452 62,600 79,335 122,864
Market Share (%) 16.0 13.4 12.6 11.1
iOS 46,598 90,560 118,848 189,924
Market Share (%) 15.7 19.4 18.9 17.2
Microsoft 12,378 26,346 68,156 215,998
Market Share (%) 4.2 5.6 10.8 19.5
Other Operating Systems 11,417.4 18,392.3 21,383.7 36,133.9
Market Share (%) 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.3
Total Market 296,647 467,701 630,476 1,104,898